Baník Ostrava 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Mlada Boleslav 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 59% versus Mlada Boleslav 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 57% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.35 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.066 / defence 1.105 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.940 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Baník Ostrava games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Mlada Boleslav 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 70% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.35 / Mlada Boleslav 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.066 / def 1.105 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.940 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 36% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (4 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.07x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.34 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 23W 14D 26L from 63 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 23L across 63 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.32 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 12W 6D 13L from 31 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.41 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 21W 19D 23L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.35 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 58%, Mlada Boleslav 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Baník Ostrava) and 55% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 26% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Baník Ostrava's games and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.35 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 36% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 57%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.32 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.