Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Town Stadium Karvina plays host to Karviná versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Town Stadium Karvina this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 0.70 PPG clear of Karviná in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slavia Praha in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 62% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 66% | Slavia Praha 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.957 / defence 1.091 | Slavia Praha attack 1.190 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.201. Data: 51 Karviná games / 51 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Slavia Praha 2.22. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 60% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Karviná 1.20 / Slavia Praha 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.957 / def 1.091 | Slavia Praha attack 1.190 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Karviná 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Slavia Praha part of?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 29% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Karviná and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Record (7 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Karviná and Slavia Praha in?
Karviná (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.96x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.19x) against Karviná's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.82
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.76
1.56
Slavia Praha xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Karviná and 1.56 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 10D 22L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha's form line: 41W 9D 3L from 53 games, 2.49 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 15W 7D 3L from 25 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.23 scored and 0.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 21W 10D 22L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 41W 9D 3L in their last 53 (2.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.44 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Karviná or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 52%, Slavia Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Karviná) and 44% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 44%; Karviná have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Karviná's recent matches and 48% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Karviná's recent games and 44% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Karviná 1-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.20 xG and Slavia Praha 1.56 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 26% | Slavia Praha 45%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Slavia Praha 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.