Hradec Králové vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Zlin meet at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Zlin (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Zlin have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Hradec Králové's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Zlin in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Hradec Králové are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Zlin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 50% | Zlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.86 xG and Zlin 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / defence 1.154 | Zlin attack 0.908 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hradec Králové games / 43 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 27% | Zlin 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Zlin 3.85. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 70% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 27% | Zlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Hradec Králové 1.86 / Zlin 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / def 1.154 | Zlin attack 0.908 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Zlin xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Zlin kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Zlin part of?
Hradec Králové vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 48% chance of winning, Zlin a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hradec Králové and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 5W | Draws 3 | Zlin 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.98) and Zlin's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.91x) against Hradec Králové's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
3.20
1.34
Zlin xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
4%
24.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.34 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 20W 11D 17L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 11W 11D 26L from 48 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zlin have gone 4W 6D 13L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.12 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Zlin in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 11D 17L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 11D 26L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Zlin away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.91 PPG; Zlin away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zlin in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zlin won 4-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Zlin 1-2 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Zlin?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hradec Králové) and 52% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Zlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 56% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 52% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Zlin tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zlin in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.