Hradec Králové 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Hradec Králové take on Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Plzen meet at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's home record at Malšovická Aréna: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Plzen have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 3 for Plzen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 45% versus Plzen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 35% | Plzen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.17 xG and Plzen 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.939 / defence 0.836 | Plzen attack 1.113 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.149. Data: 44 Hradec Králové games / 44 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 36% | Plzen 29%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Plzen 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | Plzen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 36% | Plzen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Hradec Králové 1.17 / Plzen 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.939 / def 0.836 | Plzen attack 1.113 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Plzen xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Plzen kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Hradec Králové 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Plzen part of?
Hradec Králové vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 35% chance of winning, Plzen a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hradec Králové and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 2 | Plzen 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.94) and Plzen's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.11x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
36%
2.78
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.24
1.07
Plzen xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 14D 17L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 30W 10D 9L from 49 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.88 PPG from 24 outings (13W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 12W 6D 6L from 24 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.04 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Plzen in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 games (1.39 PPG), while Plzen have gone 30W 10D 9L in their last 49 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Plzen away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.88 PPG; Plzen away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Plzen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Plzen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hradec Králové) and 58% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Plzen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hradec Králové's games and 58% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 58% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Plzen tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Plzen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Hradec Králové 0-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.17 xG and Plzen 1.07 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Plzen attack 1.11 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 35% | Draw 36% | Plzen 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 35%, Plzen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.