FK Jablonec vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Teplice at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Teplice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across 10 previous meetings, FK Jablonec are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 1 draws in between.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Teplice winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Teplice — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 44% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Teplice 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.20 xG and Teplice 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.000 / defence 1.254 | Teplice attack 1.158 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.286. Data: 43 FK Jablonec games / 43 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 22% | Draw 27% | Teplice 51%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 1.96. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

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