FK Jablonec 3-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in FK Jablonec's favour (2.10 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FK Jablonec lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Pardubice 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 45% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.75 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.061 / defence 0.778 | Pardubice attack 0.930 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.224. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 FK Jablonec games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG FK Jablonec 1.75 / Pardubice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.061 / def 0.778 | Pardubice attack 0.930 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Pardubice xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
FK Jablonec 3 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 58% chance of winning, Pardubice a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FK Jablonec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
Record (7 meetings): FK Jablonec 4W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.06x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.93x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.18
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.64
0.89
Pardubice xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
31.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.89 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 23W 9D 10L from 42 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 26L across 42 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 12W 5D 3L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 0W 4D 16L across 20 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pardubice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.76 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 23W 9D 10L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 7W 9D 26L in their last 42 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Pardubice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.05 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.20 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Pardubice in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Pardubice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 40%, Pardubice 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 45% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Pardubice in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 35% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 45% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Pardubice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Pardubice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 3-2 at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.75 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.06 / defence 0.78 against Pardubice attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 58% | Draw 24% | Pardubice 18%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 45%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.