FK Jablonec 2-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 87% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Dukla Praha travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's home record at Stadion Střelnice: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FK Jablonec, 0 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 29% versus Dukla Praha 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 47% | Dukla Praha 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 3.11 xG and Dukla Praha 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.429 / defence 0.756 | Dukla Praha attack 0.590 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.173. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 3.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dukla Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 FK Jablonec games / 17 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 87% | Draw 11% | Dukla Praha 3%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.15 | Draw 9.09 | Dukla Praha 33.33. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (87%) — a 84pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 87% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 30% | Dukla Praha 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 87% | Draw 11% | Dukla Praha 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 40% | xG FK Jablonec 3.11 / Dukla Praha 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.429 / def 0.756 | Dukla Praha attack 0.590 / def 1.460 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.11
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Dukla Praha xG
40%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
FK Jablonec 2 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 87% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 3% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.43x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 3.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.8%), 4-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
87%
1.15
11%
9.46
3%
35.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
4 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.11
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.64
0.52
Dukla Praha xG
1.15
87%
Home win
9.46
11%
Draw
35.97
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
4%
22.51
Win to Nil
51%
1.95
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 3.11 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.52 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 8W 3D 6L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha's form line: 3W 3D 11L from 17 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.76 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Dukla Praha away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.25 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Dukla Praha 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 38%, Dukla Praha 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Dukla Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 38% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FK Jablonec's matches and 50% of Dukla Praha's.
Do FK Jablonec and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Dukla Praha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Dukla Praha 2-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 3.11 xG and Dukla Praha 0.52 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.43 / defence 0.76 against Dukla Praha attack 0.59 / defence 1.46, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 87% | Draw 11% | Dukla Praha 3%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 87%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 47%, Dukla Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.