České Budějovice 0-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Slovan Liberec arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for České Budějovice, 3 for Slovan Liberec and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with České Budějovice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 52% versus Slovan Liberec 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 59% | Slovan Liberec 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.85 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.554 / defence 1.300 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.112 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.248. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.554 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 České Budějovice games / 42 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 16% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 58%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 6.25 | Draw 3.85 | Slovan Liberec 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Slovan Liberec 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 16% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG České Budějovice 0.85 / Slovan Liberec 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.554 / def 1.300 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.112 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Slovan Liberec xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
České Budějovice 0 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 16% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Record (8 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 2 | Slovan Liberec 3W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.55) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.11x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
16%
6.31
26%
3.87
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.66
1.80
Slovan Liberec xG
6.31
16%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
3%
38.38
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.80 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 7W 10D 27L from 44 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 17L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 6W 4D 11L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 3W 7D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
České Budějovice are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 7W 10D 27L in their last 44 games (0.70 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovan Liberec away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.05 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won 4-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Slovan Liberec 2-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 43%, Slovan Liberec 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (České Budějovice) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 48% of games; Slovan Liberec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of České Budějovice's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at České Budějovice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 14, as České Budějovice and Slovan Liberec drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.85 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.80 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.55 / defence 1.30 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 16% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 58%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 59%, Slovan Liberec 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.