Dukla Praha 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Pardubice at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Stadion Juliska this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dukla Praha 0.80 PPG, Pardubice 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 40% versus Pardubice 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 40% | Pardubice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.868 / defence 1.315 | Pardubice attack 0.905 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.228. Data: 10 Dukla Praha games / 40 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 38%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Pardubice 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 40% | Pardubice 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Dukla Praha 1.34 / Pardubice 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.868 / def 1.315 | Pardubice attack 0.905 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Pardubice xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Dukla Praha 2 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 33% chance of winning, Pardubice a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dukla Praha and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dukla Praha and Pardubice in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.87) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.41
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.80
1.46
Pardubice xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
13.23
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.46 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 2D 6L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.80 PPG, Pardubice on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dukla Praha's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.20 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pardubice in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Pardubice runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
From 5 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 3, Pardubice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 40%, Pardubice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dukla Praha and 60% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pardubice in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 40% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dukla Praha's matches and 60% of Pardubice's.
Do Dukla Praha and Pardubice tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dukla Praha defy the odds to beat Pardubice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat Pardubice 2-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.46 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 29% | Pardubice 38%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dukla Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 40%, Pardubice 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.80 PPG, Pardubice 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.