Dukla Praha 3-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host České Budějovice at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 0D 4L from 5 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Juliska, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dukla Praha at 0.60 PPG versus České Budějovice's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Dukla Praha trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
České Budějovice trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dukla Praha 20% | České Budějovice 20%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 20% | České Budějovice 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.54 xG and České Budějovice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.736 / defence 1.241 | České Budějovice attack 0.793 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.106. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Dukla Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Dukla Praha games / 35 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 48% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 27%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | České Budějovice 3.70. Dukla Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dukla Praha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 33% | České Budějovice 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 48% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Dukla Praha 1.54 / České Budějovice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.736 / def 1.241 | České Budějovice attack 0.793 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.09
České Budějovice xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice?
Dukla Praha 3 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice part of?
Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 48% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dukla Praha and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dukla Praha and České Budějovice in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.93
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.63
1.09
České Budějovice xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.09 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 5L across 5 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dukla Praha by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.20 scored and 3.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dukla Praha have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; České Budějovice in 20%.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Early Season
České Budějovice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and České Budějovice runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Dukla Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and České Budějovice?
From 3 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 2, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Dukla Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and České Budějovice?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dukla Praha 20% BTTS, České Budějovice 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dukla Praha) and 80% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 60% of games; České Budějovice in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 20% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 80% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dukla Praha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha beat České Budějovice 3-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.54 xG and České Budějovice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against České Budějovice attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 48% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 27%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 20%, České Budějovice 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dukla Praha arrived the stronger side — 0.60 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dukla Praha scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.