Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Bohemians 1905, 1.60 for Sparta Praha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Sparta Praha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Sparta Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.22 xG and Sparta Praha 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.819 / defence 0.853 | Sparta Praha attack 1.035 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.307. Data: 36 Bohemians 1905 games / 37 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Sparta Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 37% | Draw 29% | Sparta Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.22 / Sparta Praha 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.819 / def 0.853 | Sparta Praha attack 1.035 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sparta Praha xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 37% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 8W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.03x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.46
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.37
1.15
Sparta Praha xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.15 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 9D 17L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha's form line: 23W 6D 9L from 38 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 9W 2D 7L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 23W 6D 9L in their last 38 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 39%, Sparta Praha 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 56% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 56%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 33% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 56% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.