Baník Ostrava 4-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees České Budějovice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baník Ostrava 1.70 PPG, České Budějovice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baník Ostrava, 0 for České Budějovice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
České Budějovice trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 75% and České Budějovice 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 69% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.17 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.163 / defence 1.221 | České Budějovice attack 0.768 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.247. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Baník Ostrava games / 16 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 60% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 20%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | České Budějovice 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 86% | České Budějovice 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 60% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.17 / České Budějovice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.163 / def 1.221 | České Budějovice attack 0.768 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.17
České Budějovice xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Baník Ostrava 4 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 60% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.16) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.97
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.34
1.17
České Budějovice xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
2%
44.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.17 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 8W 5D 3L from 16 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 7L across 16 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; České Budějovice in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or České Budějovice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 2.00 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Baník Ostrava won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, České Budějovice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when České Budějovice 0-4 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 86%, České Budějovice at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Baník Ostrava and 57% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Baník Ostrava's games and 57% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 57% of České Budějovice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 4-1 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat České Budějovice 4-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.17 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.16 / defence 1.22 against České Budějovice attack 0.77 / defence 1.34, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 60% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 20%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 69%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.