Wuhan Zall 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Zall face Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Wuhan Zall versus Henan Jianye in Super League (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Zall have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Wuhan Zall's home record over their last 8 home games: 2W 4D 2L (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Henan Jianye away from home: 1W 3D 4L from their last 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Wuhan Zall against 1.30 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Wuhan Zall half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 69% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wuhan Zall 50% | Henan Jianye 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.14 xG and Henan Jianye 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.908 / defence 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.687 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Henan Jianye's attack rating of 0.687 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Wuhan Zall's last 14 games and Henan Jianye's last 14.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 30%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.76 | Draw 2.94 | Henan Jianye 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Zall 75% (last 8 home games) | Henan Jianye 25% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Wuhan Zall 1.14 / Henan Jianye 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.908 / def 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.687 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 36% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (0.91) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.69x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Zall's last 14 games and Henan Jianye's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.16
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.02 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wuhan Zall come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 8D 5L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Wuhan Zall against 1.19 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wuhan Zall's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across their last 8 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 8 away games (1W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Zall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
Wuhan Zall (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 8D 5L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Henan Jianye away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.25 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 22 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall on 22 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 November 2022: Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 75%, Henan Jianye 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Wuhan Zall and 12% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 38%; Henan Jianye in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 25% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 12% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye finished level at 1-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.14 xG and Henan Jianye 1.02 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Henan Jianye attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 30%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 50%, Henan Jianye 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 1.06 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.