Dalian Aerbin 1-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzhou City Sports Centre plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 1D 5L at Suzhou City Sports Centre — 0.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 44% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.30 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.835 / defence 1.391 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Dalian Aerbin games / 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 31% | Draw 29% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 31% | Draw 29% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.30 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.835 / def 1.391 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 31% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.84x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.42
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.81
1.51
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.51 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 4W 1D 11L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 9L across 16 games — 0.69 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.69 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 0.88 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 38%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Dalian Aerbin and 88% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 88% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 88% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2 at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.30 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.83 / defence 1.39 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 31% | Draw 29% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 50%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.81 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.