Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhan Sports Centre to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Centre: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tianjin Teda are 1.00 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns in recent Super League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Wuhan Three Towns 3W, Tianjin Teda 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 62% and Tianjin Teda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 48% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.113 / defence 1.386 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.038 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.464. Data: 38 Wuhan Three Towns games / 38 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 43%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 76% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.91 / Tianjin Teda 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.113 / def 1.386 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.038 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Tianjin Teda xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 35% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 3W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.04x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
35%
2.86
22%
4.45
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
4.02
2.11
Tianjin Teda xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.13
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
4%
23.49
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 2.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 22W 16D 22L from 60 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 16L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.50 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 11W 7D 12L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 11W 6D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.33 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 57% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 57% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.11 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.11 / defence 1.39 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 35% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 43%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wuhan Three Towns win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 48%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Three Towns win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.