Tianjin Teda 2-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympic Sports Center Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Tianjin Teda's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Meizhou Kejia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Meizhou Kejia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.82 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.980 / defence 0.957 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.945 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.236. Data: 30 Tianjin Teda games / 30 Meizhou Kejia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Meizhou Kejia 4.35. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | Meizhou Kejia 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.82 / Meizhou Kejia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.980 / def 0.957 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.945 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 54% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (6 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 3 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.98x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.94x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.36
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
26.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.12 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 21D 16L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 15W 16D 29L from 60 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (12W 15D 3L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 4W 8D 18L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Meizhou Kejia in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.70 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Meizhou Kejia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 63% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 60% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 63% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 2-2 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.82 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Meizhou Kejia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.