Tianjin Teda 0-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TEDA Football Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Tianjin Teda, 1.50 for Meizhou Kejia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Meizhou Kejia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Meizhou Kejia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.58 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.095 / defence 1.131 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.848 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.369. Data: 35 Tianjin Teda games / 35 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 32%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Meizhou Kejia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Meizhou Kejia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.58 / Meizhou Kejia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.095 / def 1.131 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.848 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Meizhou Kejia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 44% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 1.09x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.85x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.07
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.90
1.31
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.31 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 22D 16L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 23W 13D 27L from 63 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.30 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (12W 14D 6L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 7W 8D 17L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.33 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 games (1.54 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 13D 27L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.56 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Meizhou Kejia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 47% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.58 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 44% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 32%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.