Changchun Yatai 0-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.10 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 3 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2023, ended 2–4 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Meizhou Kejia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.872 / defence 1.043 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.750 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.358. Data: 37 Changchun Yatai games / 36 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 33%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Meizhou Kejia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 80% | Meizhou Kejia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.16 / Meizhou Kejia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.872 / def 1.043 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.750 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Meizhou Kejia xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 38% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 3W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.87) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.37
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.22
1.06
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.06 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 20D 23L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 23W 14D 27L from 64 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.30 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 7W 8D 17L from 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
5
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Meizhou Kejia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 47% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Changchun Yatai 0-1 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.16 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 33%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Meizhou Kejia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.