SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Pudong Football Stadium this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SHANGHAI SIPG are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: SHANGHAI SIPG have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Qingdao Jonoon have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 5–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.066 / defence 0.975 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.736 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.426. Data: 40 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 41 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.066 / def 0.975 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.736 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Qingdao Jonoon xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 56% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 4W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.07x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.03
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.92
1.02
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.02 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 60 games, going 44W 9D 7L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.95 PPG from 60 outings (15W 12D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 22W 5D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.40 points per game from 30 outings (2W 6D 22L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 44W 9D 7L in their last 60 games (2.35 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.37 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.40 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Qingdao Jonoon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 37% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Qingdao Jonoon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.02 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 56% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.