Shanghai Shenhua 2-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Shanghai Shenhua have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 46% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 57% | Sichuan Jiuniu 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.68 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.319 / defence 0.794 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.737 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Shanghai Shenhua games / 28 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 78% | Draw 15% | Sichuan Jiuniu 8%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | Sichuan Jiuniu 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 78% | Draw 15% | Sichuan Jiuniu 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 50% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.68 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.319 / def 0.794 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.737 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (78%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
50%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 78% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
78%
1.29
15%
6.88
8%
12.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.44
0.76
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.88
15%
Draw
12.94
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
7%
14.59
Win to Nil
36%
2.74
1%
188.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.76 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 2.61 PPG on a 23W 4D 1L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 6W 7D 15L from 28 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 1.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.71 PPG from 14 outings (12W 2D 0L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.89 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 23W 4D 1L in their last 28 games (2.61 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.71 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 43% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 43% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua and Sichuan Jiuniu finished level at 2-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.68 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.76 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 78% | Draw 15% | Sichuan Jiuniu 8%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.