Shandong Luneng 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Qingdao Jonoon at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Qingdao Jonoon 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 54% versus Qingdao Jonoon 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.09 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.449 / defence 0.610 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.582 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.231. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.449 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.610 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Shandong Luneng games / 24 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 76% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Jonoon 6%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.32 | Draw 5.56 | Qingdao Jonoon 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (76%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Qingdao Jonoon's lower xG of 0.44 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 30% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 76% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Jonoon 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 32% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.09 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.44 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.449 / def 0.610 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.582 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.44
Qingdao Jonoon xG
32%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 76% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 6% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.45x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 3-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
76%
1.32
18%
5.49
6%
16.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
3 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.53
0.44
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.32
76%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
16.72
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.17
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
65%
1.55
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
49%
2.04
1%
135.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 17.5 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.44 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 12W 8D 4L from 24 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 13L across 24 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 9W 2D 1L from 12 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 0W 3D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 12W 8D 4L in their last 24 games (1.83 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.42 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 7 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 42%, Qingdao Jonoon 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Shandong Luneng) and 33% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 42% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.09 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.45 / defence 0.61 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.58 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 76% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Jonoon 6%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.