Beijing Guoan 0-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hangzhou Greentown in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Beijing Guoan 0W, Hangzhou Greentown 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Hangzhou Greentown 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.308 / defence 0.907 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.329 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.231. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Beijing Guoan games / 57 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.85. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.15 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.308 / def 0.907 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.329 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Hangzhou Greentown xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 52% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.33x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.55
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.63
1.49
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
12%
8.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
3%
33.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.49 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 28W 15D 14L from 57 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 12L across 57 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.77 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 15W 8D 5L from 28 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 11W 11D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.75 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 15D 14L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 28W 17D 12L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.89 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Beijing Guoan, 75% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 61% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Beijing Guoan's games and 75% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 61% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Beijing Guoan 0-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.15 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.49 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 52% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Hangzhou Greentown 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.74 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.