Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 4W 3D 3L at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. are 0.50 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon in recent Super League fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Jonoon have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 41% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.66 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.835 / defence 1.111 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.974 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Data: 59 Qingdao Jonoon games / 59 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Jonoon are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 70% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.66 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.835 / def 1.111 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.974 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 44% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.83) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.97x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.06
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.04
1.38
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.38 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 14W 12D 33L from 59 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 29L across 59 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.02 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 12W 6D 11L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 5W 8D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.05 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 14W 12D 33L in their last 59 games (0.92 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 15D 29L in their last 59 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.45 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Qingdao Jonoon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Qingdao Jonoon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 48%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 62% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 31% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Jonoon edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.66 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.38 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.92 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.