Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Nantong Zhiyun — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 4D 3L at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nantong Zhiyun's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nantong Zhiyun, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 61% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.20 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.669 / defence 1.200 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.048 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.202. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Nantong Zhiyun games / 52 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 56% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.20 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.669 / def 1.200 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.048 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 28% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.67x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
28%
3.61
30%
3.32
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.71
1.51
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
16.40
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.51 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Nantong Zhiyun have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 2W 8D 8L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 5W 6D 7L from 18 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantong Zhiyun on 0.78 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.17 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 8D 8L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.88 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
3
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nantong Zhiyun at 62%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 50% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.20 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.51 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 28%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantong Zhiyun 0.78 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.