Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 2D 3L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Henan Jianye, 1.00 for Changchun Yatai — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Changchun Yatai in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 62% and Changchun Yatai 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Changchun Yatai 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.86 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.133 / defence 0.991 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.753 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.838 / away 1.369. Data: 56 Henan Jianye games / 56 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 19%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 80% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Henan Jianye 1.86 / Changchun Yatai 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.133 / def 0.991 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.753 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.838 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Changchun Yatai xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye 2 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 56% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Record (7 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 4 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.75x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.01
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.88
1.02
Changchun Yatai xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
33.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.02 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 14D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 0.89 PPG from 56 outings (12W 14D 30L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Henan Jianye against 0.89 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Henan Jianye's home form reads 11W 5D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 0.56 points per game from 27 outings (3W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.25 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 12W 14D 30L in their last 56 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.41 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
4
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Changchun Yatai 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Henan Jianye and 67% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 63% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Henan Jianye's matches and 67% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.86 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.75 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 19%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Changchun Yatai 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.16 PPG, Changchun Yatai 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.