Guangzhou R&F 2-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Guangzhou R&F welcome Tianjin Teda to Yuexiushan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou R&F — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 1W 0D 9L at Yuexiushan Stadium — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Tianjin Teda's 1.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Guangzhou R&F's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Guangzhou R&F trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 51% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 57% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.04 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.661 / defence 1.701 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.055 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.272. Guangzhou R&F's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Guangzhou R&F games / 29 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 16% | Draw 20% | Tianjin Teda 65%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Tianjin Teda 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou R&F 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 16% | Draw 20% | Tianjin Teda 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.04 / Tianjin Teda 2.28 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.661 / def 1.701 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.055 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
2.28
Tianjin Teda xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda?
Guangzhou R&F 2 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 16% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guangzhou R&F's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 2.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
16%
6.44
20%
5.06
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
3.33
2.28
Tianjin Teda xG
6.44
16%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
10%
9.81
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
2%
63.14
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 2.28 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guangzhou R&F's recent record stands at 7W 8D 22L from 37 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 17L across 37 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou R&F on 0.78 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guangzhou R&F have managed 4W 3D 12L from 19 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 5W 6D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.05 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 22L in their last 37 games (0.78 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 10D 17L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 0.79 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
0
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Guangzhou R&F.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 58%, Tianjin Teda 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Guangzhou R&F) and 32% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F have failed to score in 37% of games; Tianjin Teda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Guangzhou R&F's recent matches and 47% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 32% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou R&F cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.04 xG and Tianjin Teda 2.28 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.66 / defence 1.70 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 16% | Draw 20% | Tianjin Teda 65%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Guangzhou R&F win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 57%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 0.78 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou R&F win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.