Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to face Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.90 for SHANGHAI SIPG. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 40% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 35% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.174 / defence 1.042 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.846 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.224. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Henan Jianye games / 29 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 60% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Henan Jianye 1.28 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.174 / def 1.042 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.846 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 20 September 2022 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Henan Jianye 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 40% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.17x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.85x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.30
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.36
1.08
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.08 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye come into this having played 37 games, going 16W 12D 9L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (20W 10D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.89 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Henan Jianye's home form reads 12W 3D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.54 scored and 0.68 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 12D 9L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 10D 7L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.17 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, SHANGHAI SIPG 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 44% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%; SHANGHAI SIPG in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 44% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SHANGHAI SIPG defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 1-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.28 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.08 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.85 / defence 0.76, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 35%, SHANGHAI SIPG 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.62 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.