Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-3 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Guangzhou Evergrande FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 November 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 2W 2D 6L at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 39% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.25 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.770 / defence 1.038 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.250 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.299. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 36 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 28% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.08. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 28% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.25 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.770 / def 1.038 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.250 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3 - 3 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 28% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (3 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack at 0.77x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
28%
3.53
24%
4.15
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.69
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
5%
19.08
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.69 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 8D 20L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 1.27 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 4D 11L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.16 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 8D 20L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-3 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 71% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's matches and 71% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 3-3 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.25 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.69 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.04 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 28% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.27 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.