Dalian Zhixing 3-2 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.62 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.838 / defence 0.827 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.427. Data: 9 Dalian Zhixing games / 9 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 29% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Yunnan Yukun 4.55. Dalian Zhixing hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 29% | Yunnan Yukun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.62 / Yunnan Yukun 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.838 / def 0.827 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Yunnan Yukun xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 08:30 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Dalian Zhixing 3 - 2 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 50% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Yunnan Yukun's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (0.85x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.48
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.62
1.00
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
4%
23.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.00 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Yunnan Yukun go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Yunnan Yukun 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Yunnan Yukun 3-2 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.62 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.00 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.84 / defence 0.83 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 50% | Draw 29% | Yunnan Yukun 22%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.