Dalian Zhixing 0-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dalian Zhixing's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing's home record at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Dalian Zhixing are significantly better at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Dalian Zhixing's favour (1.30 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 0W, Wuhan Three Towns 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 38% versus Wuhan Three Towns 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 31% | Wuhan Three Towns 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.60 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.685 / defence 0.964 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.855 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.382. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Dalian Zhixing's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Dalian Zhixing games / 56 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 47% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.85. Dalian Zhixing hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Zhixing 20% | Wuhan Three Towns 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 47% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.60 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.685 / def 0.964 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.855 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Wuhan Three Towns xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Dalian Zhixing 0 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 47% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.85x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.74
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.74
1.14
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.14 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 9W 6D 11L from 26 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 14L across 26 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Dalian Zhixing against 0.92 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 8W 1D 4L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 2W 1D 10L across 13 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.23 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.92 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
2
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 3-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 23%, Wuhan Three Towns 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Dalian Zhixing) and 69% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 31% of games; Wuhan Three Towns in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 69% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dalian Zhixing's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing and Wuhan Three Towns finished level at 0-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.60 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.14 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.69 / defence 0.96 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 47% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 26%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 31%, Wuhan Three Towns 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Zhixing 1.27 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.