Chengdu Better City 2-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 8W 2D 0L at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 44% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 42% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.64 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.183 / defence 0.835 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.181 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.293. Data: 35 Chengdu Better City games / 35 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 44% | Draw 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 44% | Draw 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.64 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.183 / def 0.835 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.181 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 44% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 0W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.18x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.56
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.92
1.28
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.28 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 19W 12D 5L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 12W 11D 13L from 36 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (9W 8D 1L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 8W 3D 7L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.36 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 19W 12D 5L in their last 36 games (1.92 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.94 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2024, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Chengdu Better City and 67% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Chengdu Better City's games and 56% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Chengdu Better City and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.64 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.28 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 44% | Draw 28% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 42%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.