Changchun Yatai 0-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 49%, yet in-form Dalian Zhixing provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Dalian Zhixing travel to Development Area Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 July 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Development Area Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Zhixing have posted 0W 4D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dalian Zhixing's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Changchun Yatai's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Changchun Yatai register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dalian Zhixing in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Dalian Zhixing and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 65% versus Dalian Zhixing 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 65% | Dalian Zhixing 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.46 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.733 / defence 1.045 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.708 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Changchun Yatai games / 17 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 49% | Draw 27% | Dalian Zhixing 25%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Dalian Zhixing 4.00. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Zhixing (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 70% | Dalian Zhixing 62% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 49% | Draw 27% | Dalian Zhixing 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.46 / Dalian Zhixing 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.733 / def 1.045 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.708 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Dalian Zhixing xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 2 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 49% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.73x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.73
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.42
0.96
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
17.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.96 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 17 games, going 2W 2D 13L for 0.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Zhixing sit at 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 1W 1D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Zhixing have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 0.50 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing?
From 2 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 62%, Dalian Zhixing 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Changchun Yatai) and 38% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 38% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Zhixing cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Changchun Yatai 0-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.46 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 49% | Draw 27% | Dalian Zhixing 25%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Zhixing win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 65%, Dalian Zhixing 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.