Beijing Guoan 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye meet at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 7W 2D 1L at Workers' Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Workers' Stadium.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Beijing Guoan 3W, Henan Jianye 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 63% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 57% | Henan Jianye 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.96 xG and Henan Jianye 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.466 / defence 0.688 | Henan Jianye attack 0.833 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.463. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.466 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Beijing Guoan's defence rating of 0.688 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Beijing Guoan games / 37 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 13%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Henan Jianye 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.96 / Henan Jianye 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.466 / def 0.688 | Henan Jianye attack 0.833 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Henan Jianye xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 62% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.83x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
62%
1.62
25%
4.03
13%
7.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.80
0.84
Henan Jianye xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
7.49
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
53.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.84 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 30W 17D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Henan Jianye's form line: 18W 18D 24L from 60 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.03 PPG from 30 outings (18W 7D 5L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Henan Jianye away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.03 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 63%, Henan Jianye 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Beijing Guoan) and 47% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Beijing Guoan's games and 53% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 47% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.96 xG and Henan Jianye 0.84 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beijing Guoan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.47 / defence 0.69 against Henan Jianye attack 0.83 / defence 0.76, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 62% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 13%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.