Beijing Guoan 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC make the trip to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 13 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this season: 5W 2D 0L from 7 home games — 2.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.57 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.57 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 2.30 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Guangzhou Evergrande FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 57% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.48 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.106 / defence 1.082 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.171 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Beijing Guoan games / 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 28% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 71% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 28% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.48 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.106 / def 1.082 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.171 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 33% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.11) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (1.17x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.63
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.10
1.63
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.63 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 3D 4L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC sit at 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.79 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 9W 3D 2L in their last 14 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.43 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-1 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 71%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 57% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Beijing Guoan's games and 57% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 57% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.48 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.63 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 33% | Draw 28% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 50%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.71. Form was overturned, with Beijing Guoan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.