York United 1-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
York Lions Stadium plays host to York United versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Vancouver FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Vancouver FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vancouver FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, York United have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Vancouver FC managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Vancouver FC winning.
The historical record gives York United a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 62% and Vancouver FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 61% | Vancouver FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.87 xG and Vancouver FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.032 / defence 0.989 | Vancouver FC attack 1.001 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 York United games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 4.17. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 60% | Vancouver FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG York United 1.87 / Vancouver FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.032 / def 0.989 | Vancouver FC attack 1.001 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: York United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Vancouver FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Vancouver FC kick off?
York United vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
York United 1 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is York United vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Vancouver FC part of?
York United vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 50% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both York United and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
Record (8 meetings): York United 5W | Draws 2 | Vancouver FC 1W.
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
York United's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.00x) against York United's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.85
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
York United xG
Total xG
3.13
1.25
Vancouver FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
4%
27.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are York United and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for York United and 1.25 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, York United have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 16D 19L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Vancouver FC's form line: 11W 18D 27L from 56 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Put side by side, York United are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, York United have posted 1.81 PPG from 27 outings (14W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — York United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 5W 10D 12L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vancouver FC in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 games (1.41 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 11W 18D 27L in their last 56 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Vancouver FC away?
York United's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.81 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-0 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
York United
2
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 6, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 4-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Vancouver FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 63%, Vancouver FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for York United and 59% for Vancouver FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of York United's games and 67% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of York United's matches and 59% of Vancouver FC's.
Do York United and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.87 xG and Vancouver FC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24%, with York United to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 61%, Vancouver FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. York United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.