York United 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for York United against 1.80 for Cavalry FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 60% and Cavalry FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 64% | Cavalry FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.29 xG and Cavalry FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.249 / defence 0.931 | Cavalry FC attack 0.862 / defence 0.675. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.198. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.675 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 York United games / 46 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 44% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 28%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Cavalry FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Cavalry FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 44% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG York United 1.29 / Cavalry FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.249 / def 0.931 | Cavalry FC attack 0.862 / def 0.675 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: York United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cavalry FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 44% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in?
York United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 1.25x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.86x) against York United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.55
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
York United xG
Total xG
2.25
0.96
Cavalry FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for York United and 0.96 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 9D 18L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.77 PPG from 47 outings (23W 14D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for York United against 1.77 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 10W 3D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.50 points per game from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.45 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 23W 14D 10L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Cavalry FC away?
York United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.50 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
York United
1
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 50%, Cavalry FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (York United) and 41% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York United's recent matches and 59% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of York United's recent games and 41% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat York United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.29 xG and Cavalry FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Cavalry FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.68, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 44% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 28%, with York United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 64%, Cavalry FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.47 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.