York United 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Atlético Ottawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward York United. A 0.90 PPG lead over Atlético Ottawa (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 57% versus Atlético Ottawa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 52% | Atlético Ottawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.49 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.960 / defence 1.012 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.691 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.023 / away 1.150. Atlético Ottawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 York United games / 22 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 52% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 19%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 5.26. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 52% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG York United 1.49 / Atlético Ottawa 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.960 / def 1.012 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.691 / def 1.511 | league avg home 1.023 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: York United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Atlético Ottawa xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 52% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in?
York United (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (0.96) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (0.69x) against York United's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.56
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
York United xG
Total xG
2.29
0.81
Atlético Ottawa xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
22.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for York United and 0.81 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 9D 5L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 0.67 PPG from 21 outings (3W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 0.95 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
York United's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.78 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
York United
5
Draws
1
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Atlético Ottawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (York United) and 44% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; York United have failed to score in 33% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 44% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of York United's recent games and 44% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as York United and Atlético Ottawa drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.49 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.69 / defence 1.51, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 52% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 19%, with York United to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 52%, Atlético Ottawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.