Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Saturday 12 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CEPSUM Stadium, Supra du Quebec have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
HFX Wanderers FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Supra du Quebec, 1.10 for HFX Wanderers FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Supra du Quebec register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, HFX Wanderers FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Supra du Quebec 2W, HFX Wanderers FC 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 3–2 with Supra du Quebec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Supra du Quebec half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
HFX Wanderers FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 80% and HFX Wanderers FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 60% | HFX Wanderers FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.53 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.999 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 HFX Wanderers FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 70% | HFX Wanderers FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.53 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.999 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.46
HFX Wanderers FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
Record (2 meetings): Supra du Quebec 2W | Draws 0 | HFX Wanderers FC 0W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against HFX Wanderers FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (1.00x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.58
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.99
1.46
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.46 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Supra du Quebec have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 6W 4D 10L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
HFX Wanderers FC's form line: 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Supra du Quebec against 1.00 for HFX Wanderers FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Supra du Quebec have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Supra du Quebec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; HFX Wanderers FC in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Supra du Quebec's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.10 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
0
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 2-3 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Supra du Quebec, 70% for HFX Wanderers FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Supra du Quebec) and 60% (HFX Wanderers FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: HFX Wanderers FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play HFX Wanderers FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Supra du Quebec's games and 70% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Supra du Quebec's matches and 60% of HFX Wanderers FC's.
Do Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC tend to score early?
Supra du Quebec have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, HFX Wanderers FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.