Supra du Quebec 2-1 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
HFX Wanderers FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.996 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 HFX Wanderers FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.51 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.996 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.45
HFX Wanderers FC xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Supra du Quebec 2 - 1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 37% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. HFX Wanderers FC away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against HFX Wanderers FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (1.00x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.54
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
2.96
1.45
HFX Wanderers FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.45 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
HFX Wanderers FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Supra du Quebec
0
Draws
0
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 2, HFX Wanderers FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when HFX Wanderers FC 2-3 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Supra du Quebec edge out HFX Wanderers FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.