Pacific FC 1-3 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pacific FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 57% versus York United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 63% | York United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.45 xG and York United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.159 / defence 0.964 | York United attack 0.921 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.268. Data: 49 Pacific FC games / 50 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 44% | Draw 26% | York United 29%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | York United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Pacific FC 60% | York United 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 44% | Draw 26% | York United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Pacific FC 1.45 / York United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.159 / def 0.964 | York United attack 0.921 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
York United xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 1 - 3 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 44% chance of winning, York United a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. York United (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against York United's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.82
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.13
York United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.13 for York United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 25W 11D 15L from 51 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 20L across 51 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over York United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 15W 5D 4L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.10 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 25W 11D 15L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while York United have gone 14W 17D 20L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.08 PPG; York United away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
3
Draws
5
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 71%, York United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Pacific FC and 50% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pacific FC's games and 50% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Pacific FC's matches and 50% of York United's.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, York United in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Pacific FC 1-3 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.45 xG and York United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. York United outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against York United attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 44% | Draw 26% | York United 29%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 63%, York United 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.