Pacific FC 1-1 York United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates York United at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 August 2024, 03:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Starlight Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York United are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 51% versus York United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | York United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.09 xG and York United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.709 / defence 0.989 | York United attack 0.921 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.237. Pacific FC's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Pacific FC games / 44 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 33% | Draw 32% | York United 35%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | York United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 30% | York United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 33% | Draw 32% | York United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Pacific FC 1.09 / York United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.709 / def 0.989 | York United attack 0.921 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: York United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
York United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 33% chance of winning, York United a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and York United in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. York United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.71x the league average against York United's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.15
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.13
York United xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.13 for York United, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 17W 11D 17L from 45 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 18L across 45 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.38 PPG, York United on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.36 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while York United have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.36 PPG; York United away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, York United in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
4
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, York United have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when York United 3-3 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 46%, York United 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pacific FC) and 73% (York United).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Pacific FC's games and 73% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pacific FC's recent games and 73% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, York United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and York United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC and York United finished level at 1-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.09 xG and York United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.99 against York United attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 33% | Draw 32% | York United 35%, with York United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, York United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.38 PPG, York United 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.