Pacific FC 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.60 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 59% versus Atlético Ottawa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 65% | Atlético Ottawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 0.97 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.134 / defence 1.135 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.124 / defence 0.629. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.222. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.629 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Pacific FC games / 51 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 23% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 51%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Atlético Ottawa 1.96. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 60% | Atlético Ottawa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 23% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Pacific FC 0.97 / Atlético Ottawa 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.134 / def 1.135 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.124 / def 0.629 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Atlético Ottawa xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 23% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.13) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
23%
4.27
25%
3.93
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.56
Atlético Ottawa xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
5%
20.28
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.56 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 11D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.29 PPG from 51 outings (17W 15D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.63 PPG, Atlético Ottawa on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (9W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.12 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 24W 11D 16L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 15D 19L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.96 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
2
Draws
7
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 75%, Atlético Ottawa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Pacific FC and 38% for Atlético Ottawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pacific FC's games and 42% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Pacific FC's matches and 38% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 0.97 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.56 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.12 / defence 0.63, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 23% | Draw 25% | Atlético Ottawa 51%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 65%, Atlético Ottawa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.63 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.