Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atlético Ottawa (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atlético Ottawa face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to TD Place Stadium to face Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium.
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Atlético Ottawa's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Atlético Ottawa, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Vancouver FC — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Atlético Ottawa a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 55% versus Vancouver FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 52% | Vancouver FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.81 xG and Vancouver FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.999 / defence 0.937 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Atlético Ottawa games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Vancouver FC 4.35. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 50% | Vancouver FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.81 / Vancouver FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.999 / def 0.937 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Vancouver FC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 50% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Record (6 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 3W | Draws 3 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.00x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.00x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.77
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
3.00
1.19
Vancouver FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
26.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.19 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 22D 9L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 0.91 PPG from 56 outings (11W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Atlético Ottawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 12W 12D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (5W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 25W 22D 9L in their last 56 games (1.73 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 11W 18D 27L in their last 56 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Vancouver FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.78 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 19 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 4-0 on 19 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
4
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 4-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 63%, Vancouver FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Atlético Ottawa) and 59% (Vancouver FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 67% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Atlético Ottawa's matches and 59% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC finished level at 1-1 at TD Place Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.81 xG and Vancouver FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 50% | Draw 27% | Vancouver FC 23%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 52%, Vancouver FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atlético Ottawa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.