Atlético Ottawa 0-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on Atlético Ottawa. The game is scheduled for Thursday 8 July 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atlético Ottawa stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Atlético Ottawa have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacific FC — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pacific FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Atlético Ottawa 1.00 PPG, Pacific FC 1.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pacific FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Atlético Ottawa 33% | Pacific FC 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 33% | Pacific FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.46 xG and Pacific FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.929 / defence 1.537 | Pacific FC attack 0.833 / defence 1.488. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.013. Pacific FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.488 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Atlético Ottawa games / 3 Pacific FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 38% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Pacific FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atlético Ottawa 33% | Pacific FC 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 38% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.46 / Pacific FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.929 / def 1.537 | Pacific FC attack 0.833 / def 1.488 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Pacific FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 8 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 38% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (0.93) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.10
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.76
1.30
Pacific FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.30 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pacific FC's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Pacific FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.00 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Early Season
Pacific FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Atlético Ottawa or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Atlético Ottawa 33% BTTS, Pacific FC 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Atlético Ottawa) and 67% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacific FC in 33%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacific FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 33% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 67% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.46 xG and Pacific FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.93 / defence 1.54 against Pacific FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.49, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 38% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 30%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 33%, Pacific FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.00 PPG, Pacific FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.