Vitoria 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vitoria and Fluminense meet at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Vitoria's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vitoria's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Manoel Barradas this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Fluminense have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitoria lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Vitoria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vitoria — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 53% versus Fluminense 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vitoria 50% | Fluminense 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 0.91 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.800 / defence 1.104 | Fluminense attack 0.860 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.984. Data: 30 Vitoria games / 68 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 33% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 34%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Fluminense 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 40% | Fluminense 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 33% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Vitoria 0.91 / Fluminense 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.800 / def 1.104 | Fluminense attack 0.860 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fluminense xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Fluminense kick off?
Vitoria vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Vitoria 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Vitoria vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Fluminense part of?
Vitoria vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 33% chance of winning, Fluminense a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Vitoria and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Vitoria 1W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Vitoria and Fluminense in?
Vitoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vitoria's attack rating (0.80) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.86x) against Vitoria's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.02
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Vitoria xG
Total xG
1.84
0.93
Fluminense xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 14.8 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.93 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitoria come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 5D 16L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Fluminense sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Vitoria against 1.20 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitoria's home form reads 6W 2D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Fluminense have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (4W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 9W 5D 16L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Fluminense away?
Vitoria's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.33 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vitoria
2
Draws
1
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Fluminense?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 2, Fluminense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fluminense 2-2 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Fluminense?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 47%, Fluminense 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vitoria) and 27% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Vitoria have failed to score in 33% of games; Fluminense in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vitoria's recent matches and 27% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vitoria's recent games and 27% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Fluminense tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitoria defy the odds to beat Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Fluminense 2-1 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 0.91 xG and Fluminense 0.93 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Fluminense attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 33% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 34%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Vitoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 50%, Fluminense 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitoria 1.07 PPG, Fluminense 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.