Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Chapecoense-sc at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 February 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio São Januário — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.98 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.055 / defence 1.166 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.078. Data: 39 Vasco DA Gama games / 1 Chapecoense-sc games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 22% | Chapecoense-sc 20%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Chapecoense-sc 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Vasco DA Gama (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 22% | Chapecoense-sc 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.98 / Chapecoense-sc 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.055 / def 1.166 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Chapecoense-sc xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 59% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Vasco DA Gama home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 1.05x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.65
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
3.05
1.07
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
3%
36.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.07 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc?
From 1 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 2, as Vasco DA Gama and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.98 xG and Chapecoense-sc 1.07 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 22% | Chapecoense-sc 20%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.