Palmeiras 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Mirassol at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 July 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Allianz Parque this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 1.70 (Mirassol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Mirassol in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 36% versus Mirassol 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 36% | Mirassol 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.13 xG and Mirassol 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.868 / defence 0.939 | Mirassol attack 0.986 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 0.926. Data: 49 Palmeiras games / 11 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 42% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 27%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Mirassol 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 30% | Mirassol 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Jul 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 42% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Palmeiras 1.13 / Mirassol 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.868 / def 0.939 | Mirassol attack 0.986 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.280 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mirassol xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Mirassol kick off?
Palmeiras vs Mirassol kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 16 July 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Palmeiras vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Mirassol part of?
Palmeiras vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 42% chance of winning, Mirassol a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palmeiras and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Mirassol in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Mirassol (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (0.87) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.22
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
1.99
0.86
Mirassol xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.86 for Mirassol, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 11 games, going 7W 1D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Mirassol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.55 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 73%.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Mirassol away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.40 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mirassol in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 1, Mirassol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Palmeiras 0% BTTS, Mirassol 60%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Palmeiras and 20% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 60% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Palmeiras's recent games and 20% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Mirassol tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 14, as Palmeiras and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.13 xG and Mirassol 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 42% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 27%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 36%, Mirassol 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Mirassol's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.