Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Bahia at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 6W 1D 3L at Allianz Parque — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bahia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Palmeiras have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Bahia have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bahia in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 41% versus Bahia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 45% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.75 xG and Bahia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.968 / defence 0.858 | Bahia attack 1.054 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 0.871. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Palmeiras games / 43 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 57% | Draw 29% | Bahia 14%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Bahia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | Bahia 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 57% | Draw 29% | Bahia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Palmeiras 1.75 / Bahia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.968 / def 0.858 | Bahia attack 1.054 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.459 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bahia xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Bahia kick off?
Palmeiras vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras 0 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Palmeiras vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Bahia part of?
Palmeiras vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 57% chance of winning, Bahia a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Record (6 meetings): Palmeiras 4W | Draws 1 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Bahia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (0.97) and Bahia's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
57%
1.75
29%
3.44
14%
7.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.53
0.79
Bahia xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
7.31
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
41.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.79 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 42W 17D 17L from 76 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 33L across 76 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 26W 4D 8L from 38 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 8W 8D 22L across 38 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.30 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 17L in their last 76 games (1.88 PPG), while Bahia have gone 27W 16D 33L in their last 76 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Bahia away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.16 PPG; Bahia away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bahia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Bahia runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Bahia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 58% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bahia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 58% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 58% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Bahia tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bahia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Palmeiras 0-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.75 xG and Bahia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Bahia attack 1.05 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 57% | Draw 29% | Bahia 14%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 45%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.