Mirassol 1-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mirassol host Sport Recife at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.96 xG and Sport Recife 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.177 / defence 1.301 | Sport Recife attack 0.788 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 0.856. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Mirassol games / 10 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 62% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 15%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Sport Recife 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 62% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Mirassol 1.96 / Sport Recife 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.177 / def 1.301 | Sport Recife attack 0.788 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.314 / away 0.856 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sport Recife xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Sport Recife kick off?
Mirassol vs Sport Recife kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Mirassol 1 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Mirassol vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Sport Recife part of?
Mirassol vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 62% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mirassol and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Sport Recife in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.26
15%
6.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.84
0.88
Sport Recife xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
6.68
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
47.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.88 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Sport Recife have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Sport Recife 1-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Sport Recife?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Sport Recife 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.96 xG and Sport Recife 0.88 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sport Recife landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.30 against Sport Recife attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 62% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 15%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.