Gremio 0-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Arena do Grêmio to face Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mirassol are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gremio lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Mirassol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gremio 55% and Mirassol 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 25% | Mirassol 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.85 xG and Mirassol 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.745 / defence 0.908 | Mirassol attack 0.986 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.089. Gremio's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Gremio games / 20 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 37%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Mirassol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 50% | Mirassol 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Gremio 0.85 / Mirassol 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.745 / def 0.908 | Mirassol attack 0.986 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mirassol xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Mirassol kick off?
Gremio vs Mirassol kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Mirassol?
Gremio 0 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Gremio vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Mirassol part of?
Gremio vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 30% chance of winning, Mirassol a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Gremio and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Gremio 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Gremio and Mirassol in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Mirassol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.99x) against Gremio's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 59/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
30%
3.30
33%
3.04
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.83
0.97
Mirassol xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gremio and 0.97 for Mirassol, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 5W 7D 8L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol's form line: 9W 8D 3L from 20 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, Mirassol have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 70%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 9W 8D 3L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Mirassol away?
Gremio's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.44 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Mirassol have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 4-1 on 16 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Gremio
0
Draws
3
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Gremio have won 0, Mirassol have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 44%, Mirassol 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Gremio and 22% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mirassol in 33%; Gremio have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gremio's recent matches and 56% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Gremio's recent games and 22% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Mirassol tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Gremio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.85 xG and Mirassol 0.97 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 37%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Mirassol 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mirassol's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.